Future-proof solutions offer the opportunity to minimize the risk of losses in service. Often though, this comes with a higher initial investment than the more myopic solutions, i.e., interventions focused on the short-term effects. It is therefore crucial for any investor to be able to estimate the risk of both the cost and benefits (i.e., the net-benefit) of alternative investment solutions, with proper consideration of the future uncertainty of needs and environmental conditions. This requires being able to consistently: (i) recognize and model uncertainty affecting the objectives, (ii) formulate alternative design approaches (including future-proof approaches, to minimize downside risks and maximize upside opportunities), (iii) simulate scenarios, and (iv) determine the optimal solution. The main contributions of my research in this area include:

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• The development and testing of a new methodology, based on the real options paradigm, to optimize the long-term investments in infrastructure and construction in the face of future uncertainty. Reference publications: Elvarsson et al., 2020_under review; Martani et al., 2018; Martani et al., 2016.

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• The delivery of courses and seminars to raise awareness about current and future investors, designers and infrastructure managers on the functioning of the real options-based simulation methods to evaluate future-proof solutions. This includes the following courses and seminars:

  • Real Options for Infrastructure Management, MSc in Civil Engineering at ETH, Zürich;

  • The second part of the course Network Infrastructure 1, MSc in Spatial Development and Infrastructure Systems at ETH, Zürich;

  • Future-proof design at the PhD School of the Politecnico di Milano;

  • A yearly seminar on Real Options for the MSc course in Real Estate Management at the Center for Urban and Real Estate Management (CUREM) at the Universität Zürich;

  • A seminar on Future-proof decision-making at the DA of Integrated Security and Data and Decisions at the Stager Center, Virgina Tech.